Reviewed by: Frank Yap, MBA | Written by: One Day Advisor Editorial Team | Originally published: July 1, 2026 | Last updated: October 2026

Disclosure: This article is educational and is not financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile and you can lose your entire investment. It contains no affiliate or sponsored links. Other One Day Advisor pages may include Amazon Associates links, which are disclosed where they appear.

Quick Answer

The 1,064/364-day model says Bitcoin rises about 1,064 days from a cycle low to a peak, then falls about 364 days to the next low. Applied to the October 6, 2025 peak (about $126,200), it pointed to a bottom near October 5, 2026. So far the low was about $57,800 on July 1, 2026, and Bitcoin trades near $81,000.

What changed in this update (October 24, 2026)

Added the model’s origin (analyst Ali Martinez) and its original October 2026 / $37,500 call.
Replaced the historical table, which listed 2011–2013 cycles the model does not cover and imprecise day counts, with dated peaks and troughs.
Added a scorecard of how the model has performed against actual 2026 prices.
Updated the timeline, FAQ, schema and sources; added a section on what to watch next.

1,064-Day and 364-Day Bitcoin Cycle Explained (October 2026 Update): Has the Model Called the Bottom?

Bitcoin’s best-known timing framework is the four-year halving cycle. A newer one, the 1,064-day / 364-day cycle, became popular in late 2025 because it pointed to a specific window for the current bear-market low: early to mid-October 2026. That window has now largely passed. This guide explains the model, checks it against dated history and 2026 prices, and lays out what would confirm or break it.

Contents

What is the 1,064/364-day cycle?
Historical cycles, with dates
Where Bitcoin stands now (October 2026)
Scorecard: did the model work?
Relationship to the halving cycle
What is different this cycle
Strengths, limitations and companion indicators
What to watch next
Using AI tools with this article
FAQ
Sources and related reading

What is the 1,064-day / 364-day Bitcoin cycle?

The 1,064/364-day cycle is a timing hypothesis that splits each Bitcoin market cycle into a roughly 1,064-day climb from a major low to a major high, followed by a roughly 364-day decline to the next major low. Together that is 1,428 days, about 3.9 years, close to the four-year halving interval.

Analyst Ali Martinez popularized the pattern in a December 2025 thread, reporting that the 2015–2017 and 2018–2021 cycles each took about 1,064 days from bottom to top, with a roughly 364-day bear market after the 2017 peak. Applied to the October 2025 peak above $126,000, he pointed to a bottom around October 2026 and, using an average drawdown of roughly 70–80%, a price near $37,500 (TradingView/NewsBTC).

1,064 days (about 2.9 years): recovery, accumulation and bull market.
364 days (about 1 year): distribution, correction and bear market.

Historical Bitcoin cycles, with dates

Only three completed bottom-to-top-to-bottom measurements exist for this model. The earlier table on this page listed 2011–2013 cycles that the framework does not use; the dated counts below replace it. Daily-chart counts differ from the quarterly-chart counts used by proponents by a few days, depending on which candle is treated as the low or high.

Cycle	Low → peak	Days (daily chart)	Peak → next low	Days / drawdown
2015–2018	Jan 2015 low → Dec 17, 2017 (~$19,783)	~1,068	Dec 2017 → Dec 15, 2018 (~$3,185)	~363 / ~84%
2018–2022	Dec 2018 low → Nov 10, 2021 (~$69,000)	~1,061	Nov 2021 → Nov 21, 2022 (~$15,583)	~376 / ~77%
2022–now	Nov 21, 2022 low → Oct 6, 2025 (~$126,200)	~1,050	Oct 2025 → Jul 1, 2026 low so far (~$57,800)	268 days so far / ~54%

Prices are approximate daily extremes and vary by data provider. The 2025 peak is cited between about $126,198 and $126,296 depending on the source. Bear-market drawdown for the current cycle is Binance Research’s figure.

Where Bitcoin stands now (October 2026)

As of October 23–24, 2026, Bitcoin trades near $81,000, about 36% below its October 2025 peak and roughly 40% above its July 2026 low. Key facts:

Peak: about $126,200 on October 6, 2025. The 364-day mark fell on October 5, 2026.
2026 lows: about $60,000 on February 6; that level broke on June 5 and the low of about $57,800 came on July 1, the lowest since September 2024 (Bloomberg).
Rebound: Binance Research noted Bitcoin closed at $84,880 on October 1, 46.9% above the July low, and said history does not yet confirm a bottom (crypto.news).
Latest pressure: on October 23 Bitcoin hovered just above $81,000, below the roughly $82,300 average cost basis of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, after the largest ETF outflows since June, with Brent crude above $116 (CoinDesk). A Fed decision is due October 28.

Scorecard: did the 1,064/364-day model work?

Not on its strict terms so far: the timing window passed with price well above the low and far from the $37,500 target, but the model is not fully falsified because the 2026 low is not confirmed as final.

Test	Model said	What happened	Result
Bottom date	~Oct 5, 2026 (364 days after peak)	Lowest price so far came Jul 1, 2026 (day 268); price ~$85,000 on Oct 5	Miss, unless a lower low follows
Bottom price	~$37,500 (70–80% drawdown)	~$57,800 low (~54% drawdown)	Miss so far
Direction (a bear phase follows the peak)	Year-long decline after the peak	Price is ~36% below the peak a year later	Broadly right

Two readings are reasonable. Skeptics say the shallowest drawdown on record and an early low show the pattern has weakened. Others, including Cantor Fitzgerald, whose analysis uses an average of about 384 days from peak to low (late October 2026), argue the cycle is not finished (Cryptonomist). Nansen and Bitget Wallet researchers, by contrast, say the bottom may already be in near $57,000 (Yahoo Finance). Because three cycles is a tiny sample, none of these can be proven.

How does the model relate to the Bitcoin halving?

The halving is a programmed supply event every 210,000 blocks (about four years); the 1,064/364 cycle is a descriptive price-timing pattern that overlaps with it but is not part of the protocol. The last three peaks came roughly 526, 548 and 534 days after the 2016, 2020 and 2024 halvings, which is why the two frameworks often point to similar years.

Halving	Approximate date
2012	November 2012
2016	July 2016
2020	May 2020
2024	April 2024
2028	Projected April 2028 (block 1,050,000); live estimate on CoinWarz

What is different about the current cycle?

This cycle has more institutional ownership and more macro sensitivity than earlier ones, which may explain the shallower decline.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs: regulated access brought large new buyers, but also a new source of outflows. ETF cost basis (about $82,300) now acts as a reference level.
Corporate treasuries: companies hold Bitcoin on balance sheets; news of treasury selling contributed to the June–July 2026 low.
Rates and liquidity: the Fed raised rates on September 16, 2026, and rate expectations have driven Bitcoin more than halving timing.
Lower volatility: Binance Research adjusts the 54% drop to about 1.94 standard deviations, so a shallower percentage fall may reflect a calmer asset rather than a milder bear market.

Strengths, limitations and companion indicators

Strengths: it is simple, testable and gives a date range that can be checked against price. Limitations:

Only three measured cycles, with different macro conditions.
Day counts depend on which highs and lows are chosen.
Wide public attention can change behavior; critics note that widely known dates may become self-fulfilling or self-defeating.
It says nothing about depth or about shocks such as rate hikes or oil spikes.

Indicators often paired with it: MVRV ratio, realized price, 200-week moving average, Hash Ribbon, Puell Multiple, Pi Cycle Top, long-term holder supply, exchange reserves, spot ETF flows, stablecoin liquidity and global M2.

What to watch next

Three things matter most: whether $57,000–$60,000 holds, whether Bitcoin reclaims the ETF cost basis and the $84,000 supply zone, and whether ETF flows turn positive.

Bullish for the “bottom is in” view: a daily close back above roughly $82,300–$84,000 with net ETF inflows, and the July low holding.
Bearish: a close below the July low would show the 54% drawdown was not the floor and reopen deeper targets.
Dates: Fed decision October 28 and U.S. midterm elections November 3, 2026.

Using AI tools with this article

You can paste this article into an AI assistant and ask it to test the model against your own time horizon. These are educational prompts, not trading signals; always verify prices from a live source.

Tool	Suggested prompt
Claude	Using the dated table in this article, list the assumptions behind the 1,064/364 model and which ones the 2026 data weakens.
ChatGPT	Build a checklist of on-chain and ETF-flow signals I could use to confirm or reject a Bitcoin bottom after October 2026.
Gemini	Compare the 1,064/364-day model with the halving-based cycle across the last three cycles and show where they disagree.
Perplexity	Find today’s Bitcoin price, spot ETF net flows this week, and analyst views on whether the cycle low is in, with sources.

Frequently asked questions

What is the 1,064-day Bitcoin cycle?

It is a pattern in which Bitcoin takes about 1,064 days to rise from a major low to a major peak, then about 364 days to fall to the next low. Together that is 1,428 days. It is a historical observation based on three cycles, not a proven law or an official indicator.

Has Bitcoin bottomed according to the 364-day model?

Not clearly. The 364-day mark from the October 6, 2025 peak fell on October 5, 2026, when Bitcoin traded near $85,000, well above the July 2026 low of about $57,800. Analysts disagree on whether that low is final. Binance Research says a bottom is unconfirmed.

Did Bitcoin fall to $37,500 as the model projected?

No. The $37,500 figure came from applying an average historical drawdown to the October 2025 peak. Bitcoin’s lowest price so far is about $57,800 (July 1, 2026), a drop of roughly 54%, shallower than the roughly 84% and 77% declines of the previous two bear markets.

Is the 1,064/364 cycle better than the halving cycle?

Neither is proven to be better. The halving is a fixed supply event; the 1,064/364 pattern is a price-timing observation. They overlap because peaks have come roughly 17–18 months after halvings. Most analysts use both together with on-chain, ETF-flow and macro data rather than relying on one.

What is Bitcoin’s price now?

Bitcoin traded near $81,000 on October 23–24, 2026, about 36% below its roughly $126,200 peak and roughly 40% above its July low. Crypto prices move quickly and differ slightly by exchange, so check a live quote before making decisions.

When is the next Bitcoin halving?

The next halving is projected for around April 2028 at block height 1,050,000. The exact date depends on how fast blocks are mined, so live trackers such as CoinWarz update the estimate continuously.

Should investors rely on this model?

No. With only three data points and a missed price target so far, it works best as one input alongside risk management, position sizing and other indicators. This article is educational and is not personalized investment advice.

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1,064-Day and 364-Day Bitcoin Cycle Explained (2026): Can This Model Predict the Next Bitcoin Bull Run?