Bitcoin Nasdaq Correlation: The Correlation between the Nasdaq index and Cryptocurrencies (2025 Year-End Version)

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The correlation between the Nasdaq index and cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, has been a subject of interest and analysis, reflecting the increasing integration of digital assets into the broader financial ecosystem.

Bitcoin Nasdaq Correlation

Updated Status as of November 2025

The core thesis from the original article remains valid: Bitcoin continues to behave like a high-beta tech asset with a strong positive correlation to the Nasdaq 100. However, the relationship has evolved with some important nuances in 2025.
  • 30-day rolling correlation (BTC vs. Nasdaq 100): ~0.80
    → Highest level since 2022 and the second-highest in the past decade (sources: Kobeissi Letter, Wintermute, CoinDesk)
  • 5-year average correlation: ~0.54
    → Confirms the recent spike is part of a longer-term uptrend that began in 2020
  • Year-to-date performance (Jan 1 – Nov 20, 2025):
    → Nasdaq 100: +20%
    → Bitcoin: +3–4%
    → BTC has significantly underperformed tech stocks despite the tight correlation
  • Key new phenomenon in 2025: Strong negative skew (also called negative asymmetry)
    → Bitcoin falls harder and faster than the Nasdaq on risk-off days
    → Bitcoin rises less (or fails to keep pace) on risk-on days
    → This pattern is very similar to the behavior seen at bear market bottoms (e.g., late 2022)

Historical Context and Trends:

  • Increasing Correlation: Over the past few years, there has been a noticeable trend towards a stronger correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq Composite Index, especially with tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq 100. As of early 2025, this correlation has been observed to be at a high level, with some periods showing a correlation coefficient above 0.9.
    This suggests that movements in Bitcoin prices often mirror those of the Nasdaq, particularly during bullish market phases for tech stocks.
  • Institutional Influence: The growing involvement of institutional investors in cryptocurrencies has played a significant role in this correlation. Companies like Coinbase, which has a listing on Nasdaq, directly tie their stock performance to Bitcoin's price movements. Additionally, firms holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets, like MicroStrategy, further align crypto and traditional
    market behaviors.
  • Market Sentiment: Posts on X (formerly Twitter) have highlighted this correlation, with some users noting that crypto markets, particularly Bitcoin, are highly correlated with the Nasdaq, influenced by factors like FOMC decisions, tariffs, and tech sector developments.
    This sentiment underscores how external economic factors impact both markets similarly.

Analysis and Considerations:

  • Correlation Fluctuations: While there's a general trend towards higher correlation, this relationship is not static. There have been periods where Bitcoin decoupled from the Nasdaq, especially during significant crypto-specific events like the collapse of major exchanges or regulatory shifts. These events can temporarily disrupt the correlation, showing Bitcoin's potential to act independently of stock market trends.
  • Market Dynamics: The correlation is not just about price movements but also reflects broader market dynamics. For instance, the tech sector's performance, which heavily influences the Nasdaq, can spill over into crypto valuations due to perceived similarities in risk profiles and investor behavior towards tech and crypto investments.
  • Investment Implications: For investors, understanding this correlation can aid in portfolio diversification strategies. However, it also warns against assuming cryptocurrencies are entirely independent from traditional market movements, especially during volatile or bearish periods.
  • Future Outlook: The long-term correlation might evolve with changes in regulation, broader adoption, or shifts in how investors perceive cryptocurrencies (from speculative to more established assets).

What Changed During 2025?
  • Early 2025: Very high correlation (0.7–0.9 spikes) driven by post-ETF euphoria and the broader tech/AI rally
  • Mid-2025 (April–July): Brief decoupling periods where Bitcoin occasionally correlated more with gold (0.7) than with Nasdaq (0.5) during risk-off episodes
  • Late 2025 (September–November): Correlation re-tightened to 0.80+ amid broader risk-off sentiment, delayed Fed easing expectations, ETF outflows, and macro uncertainty
Bitcoin is now solidly trading as a “high-beta tech stock with a bearish twist” — amplifying Nasdaq downside while capturing less of the upside.Updated Implications for Investors
  • The “uncorrelated hedge” or “digital gold” narrative is weaker than ever
  • Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to the same macro drivers as growth/tech stocks (interest rates, liquidity, risk appetite)
  • The current negative skew often signals exhaustion rather than a healthy bull market; similar dynamics preceded major bounces in previous cycles
  • Decoupling is still possible if strong crypto-native catalysts appear (clearer regulation, renewed ETF inflows, halving cycle maturity), but none are dominant right now
The original January 2025 article was directionally correct but naturally missed the late-year persistence of high correlation combined with pronounced negative asymmetry. As of November 20, 2025, the Bitcoin–Nasdaq relationship is tighter than ever — just not in the bullish way many investors expected.


Update (Nov 2025): https://x.com/i/grok/share/YO02tWfIa1fUJFC918K194A9C

Source (Jan 2025): https://x.com/i/grok/share/Y412OoNLpjh4m6Kj6OsFbOriH

Related: Bitcoin Gold Correlation Trends (2025 Year-End Edition)

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