Novo Nordisk vs. Eli Lilly — The GLP‑1 Market Showdown (2026 Perspective)

By -
The fight for dominance in GLP‑1 medicines — drugs that boost weight loss and control diabetes — has reshaped the pharmaceutical landscape. As of early 2026, two companies lead the sector: Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. Together they compete in a market projected to exceed $100 billion by 2030, with obesity therapies driving most of the value. (onedayadvisor.com)

Eli Lilly vs. Novo Nordisk in the GLP-1 Market

1. Market Context & Recent Headlines (Feb 2026)

  • Novo Nordisk’s setback: Experimental obesity therapy CagriSema underperformed against Lilly’s tirzepatide in a Phase 3 trial, causing a share price drop. (reuters.com)

  • Heart‑health advantage for Wegovy: Real-world data suggest Wegovy users may have lower heart-attack risk compared to tirzepatide patients. (reuters.com)

  • Alzheimer’s trial failure: Novo’s GLP‑1 candidate failed in two Alzheimer’s trials, highlighting limits outside metabolic disease. (axios.com)

  • Cost pressures: Novo announced ~9,000 job cuts due to competition and slowing growth forecasts. (theguardian.com)


2. Company & Drug Overview

Eli Lilly:

  • Flagship GLP‑1: Tirzepatide (Mounjaro/Zepbound)

  • Typical use: Diabetes & Obesity

  • Delivery: Weekly injection

  • Advantage: Dual agonist (GLP‑1 + GIP) delivering strong weight-loss results

Novo Nordisk:

  • Flagship GLP‑1: Semaglutide (Ozempic/Wegovy) & Rybelsus

  • Typical use: Diabetes & Obesity

  • Delivery: Injection + Oral

  • Advantage: Global footprint and first-to-market oral GLP‑1 (Rybelsus)

3. Efficacy & Clinical Comparisons

  • Weight loss (obesity, no T2D)
    Lilly (tirzepatide 15 mg): 20.2–20.9%
    Novo (semaglutide 2.4 mg): 13.7–14.9%
    → Lilly superior by ~6 percentage points (SURMOUNT-5, NEJM May 2025)
  • A1C reduction (type 2 diabetes)
    Lilly: –2.0 to –2.3%
    Novo: –1.5 to –1.9%
    → Lilly superior by ~0.4–0.5%
  • Patients achieving ≥25% weight loss
    Lilly: 32%
    Novo: 16%
  • Waist circumference reduction
    Lilly: –14.7 cm
    Novo: –10.5 cm
  • Gastrointestinal side effects
    Both similar; nausea 25–44%, vomiting 10–18%
    Tirzepatide generally better tolerated at highest doses
  • Cardiovascular benefit label
    Novo: Already approved (SELECT trial)
    Lilly: Expected Q4 2025 (SURPASS-CVOT)
Interpretation: Tirzepatide shows a dual-agonist advantage for patients requiring deeper metabolic effects. (onedayadvisor.com)

4. Q4 2025 Earnings Results — What Investors Need to Know

Eli Lilly (Q4 2025)

  • Reported $19.3 billion in total revenue for Q4 2025, a 43% year‑over‑year increase, driven heavily by Mounjaro and Zepbound GLP‑1 sales.

  • Non‑GAAP earnings per share (EPS) rose to $7.54, beating analyst expectations.

  • Growth was broad, with U.S. revenue up 43% and international revenue up 43%, indicating strong global demand.

  • Key regulatory and pipeline progress included FDA approval of a Kwikpen for tirzepatide and submissions for orforglipron (oral GLP‑1) in multiple regions.

  • Lilly provided 2026 guidance with projected revenue of $80 billion–$83 billion and non‑GAAP EPS of $33.50–$35.00, reflecting confidence in continued volume expansion.

Novo Nordisk (Q4 2025)

  • Novo reported positive full‑year 2025 GLP‑1 growth, but total GLP‑1 sales declined slightly (~‑5% overall) after strong headwinds and competitive pressure.

  • Obesity care sales grew ~182% in 2025, highlighting continued demand for Wegovy, even as injectable GLP‑1 statistics softened.

  • Newer formats like oral Wegovy and Wegovy indications helped offset some legacy pressures, but volume growth lagged Lilly’s momentum.

Market reaction:

  • Novo’s stock fell sharply in late February 2026 after CagriSema (its next‑gen GLP‑1 candidate) underperformed against tirzepatide in a key Phase 3 trial, dampening near‑term confidence.

  • In contrast, Lilly’s stock rallied on the strong quarterly beat and positive guidance, reinforcing Lilly’s leadership in both diabetes and obesity GLP‑1 markets. 

5. Pipeline & Future Launches (2026–2027)

Eli Lilly pipeline:

  • Orforglipron: Oral GLP‑1; FDA submission expected mid‑2026

  • Retatrutide: Triple agonist with potential best-in-class weight loss

Novo Nordisk pipeline:

  • Oral Wegovy: FDA decision expected late 2025–early 2026

  • CagriSema: Phase 3 miss has delayed launch to 2027 or later

Pipeline timing will likely determine competitive advantage over the next 24 months.


6. Emerging GLP‑1 & Related Stocks to Watch

Beyond the big two, several companies are drawing investor attention for their expansion into GLP‑1 and metabolic therapies:

Pfizer (PFE)

  • Developing oral GLP‑1 candidates; large balance sheet supports global launches if trials succeed.

Amgen (AMGN)

  • Advancing MariTide, a potential once‑monthly GLP‑1/GIP bispecific therapy. Positive mid‑ to late‑stage data could accelerate share gains.

Altimmune

  • Working on pemvidutide, a dual agonist targeting obesity and NASH, with potential for regulatory breakthroughs.

Zealand Pharma

  • Partnering with big pharma to develop amylin and next‑gen peptide therapies; may benefit from combination approaches.

Sanofi & AstraZeneca

  • Both have metabolic programs that could cross into GLP‑1 or complementary pathways, diversifying their portfolios.

Biotech Innovators

  • Smaller companies with early‑stage GLP‑1 or dual‑agonist assets can offer higher‑risk, higher‑reward profiles — but face clinical and regulatory uncertainty.

7. Competitive Trends from Q4 2025 into 2026

Prescriptions & Market Dynamics

  • Prescription trends suggest semaglutide and tirzepatide continue driving overall GLP‑1 demand, though pricing sensitivity and payer negotiations remain active variables.

  • Some payers (including major PBMs) have shifted formularies to favor certain GLP‑1 products, reshaping utilization patterns.

Pricing & Reimbursement

  • U.S. pricing reforms and price caps are impacting realized price growth, though volume increases are currently offsetting pricing pressures for major players.

Regulatory Momentum

  • Approvals and expanded indications — including for pediatric diabetes and cardiovascular risk reduction — are broadening GLP‑1 use cases, fueling longer‑term demand.

8. Investment & Strategic Implications

Lilly’s advantage:

  • Consistent share gains, strong Q4 2025 performance, and robust global expansion signal Lilly is positioned as the current market share leader.

Novo’s opportunity:

  • Challenges in 2025 don’t erase Novo’s long‑term GLP‑1 infrastructure. With oral products and cardiovascular market positioning, Novo remains a strategic contender if it can stabilize growth.

Emerging players:

  • Investors looking beyond incumbents should balance clinical timelines, regulatory catalysts, and commercialization risks in mid‑ and early‑stage GLP‑1 and peptide therapy stocks.

Patient perspective: Tirzepatide may provide higher weight loss; Semaglutide may offer cardiovascular benefits for select populations.

9. Conclusion — GLP‑1 Market Outlook (2026)

  • Eli Lilly’s strong Q4 2025 revenue and guidance boost its competitive momentum.

  • Novo Nordisk’s Q4 2025 performance underscores structural headwinds, but also areas of resilient demand.

  • Emerging GLP‑1 stocks broaden the opportunity set, especially in oral therapies and next‑gen mechanisms, though they carry higher execution risk.

The GLP‑1 arena remains high growth and rapidly evolving, making it one of the most watched segments in biotech and pharma investing in 2026.

In sum, Eli Lilly is not just winning the GLP-1 war—it's redefining it through innovation and execution, positioning for a multi-decade reign in "diabesity". Novo remains a resilient contender with international scale and value appeal (P/E ~20x vs. Lilly's 56x), but recovery hinges on oral launches and CagriSema redemption. For investors: Lilly for aggressive growth; Novo for steady compounding. The era of injectable dominance is yielding to orals and beyond.

Related: 


Comments

Post a Comment

Pages

Archive

Show more

Popular posts from this blog

AI Demand Drives Ongoing SSD & Memory Shortages: Prices Surging Further into 2026 and Beyond

By -
Image
As we enter 2026, the memory and storage crunch predicted in late 2025 has materialized with even greater intensity. AI data centers continue to dominate global production of DRAM and NAND flash, pushing prices sharply higher and extending lead times across consumer, PC, and enterprise segments. Nearly every analyst firm and memory maker is now warning of looming NAND and DRAM shortages that will send SSD and memory prices skyrocketing over the coming months and years, with some even predicting a shortage that will last a decade. For the better part of two years, storage upgrades have been a rare bright spot for PC builders. SSD prices cratered to all-time lows in 2023 , with high-performance NVMe drives selling for little more than the cost of a modest mechanical hard disk. DRAM followed a similar trajectory, dropping to price points not seen in nearly a decade. In 2024, the pendulum swung firmly in the other direction, with prices for both NAND flash and DRAM sta...
Read more

Bitcoin Nasdaq Correlation: The Correlation between the Nasdaq index and Cryptocurrencies (2025 Year-End Version)

By -
Image
The correlation between the Nasdaq index and cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, has been a subject of interest and analysis, reflecting the increasing integration of digital assets into the broader financial ecosystem. Updated Status as of November 2025 The core thesis from the original article remains valid: Bitcoin continues to behave like a high-beta tech asset with a strong positive correlation to the Nasdaq 100. However, the relationship has evolved with some important nuances in 2025. 30-day rolling correlation (BTC vs. Nasdaq 100) : ~0.80 → Highest level since 2022 and the second-highest in the past decade (sources: Kobeissi Letter, Wintermute, CoinDesk) 5-year average correlation : ~0.54 → Confirms the recent spike is part of a longer-term uptrend that began in 2020 Year-to-date performance (Jan 1 – Nov 20, 2025) : → Nasdaq 100: +20% → Bitcoin: +3–4% → BTC has significantly underperformed tech stocks despite the tight correlation Key new phenomenon in 2025 : Strong negativ...
Read more

Largest Pharma Companies in the World (2025–2026 Revenue Rankings)

By -
Image
Table of Contents: Largest Pharma Companies by Revenue (Global Ranking) Top 10 Pharmaceutical Companies by Market Cap in 2025 Top 10 Most Anticipated Drug Launches of 2025 Top 10 Drugs Losing US Exclusivity in 2025 The largest pharma companies in the world play a central role in global healthcare, developing blockbuster drugs for cancer, cardiovascular disease, immunology, vaccines, and metabolic disorders. In 2025, the biggest pharmaceutical companies by revenue continued to dominate through scale, research spending, and global distribution—despite growing pressure from patent expirations, biosimilars, and pricing reforms. Medical stocks are releasing earnings reports in droves. Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US) targets $80 billion in 2026 revenue with standout performance; Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO.US) beats Q4 expectations but lowers 2026 guidance due to pricing pressures. The largest pharma companies are defined not only by revenue, but by global scale, research investment, and thera...
Read more

Top 10 Food Companies by Revenue — 2026 Update

By -
Image
The ten largest food and beverage companies in the world remain Nestle, Ahold Delhaize, PepsiCo., Archer Daniels Midland, Sysco, JBS, Performance Food Group, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Unilever, and Tyson Foods. The global food and beverage industry remains one of the largest and most resilient sectors of the world economy, generating trillions of dollars in annual revenue . While consumer preferences, inflation, and supply-chain realignments continue to reshape the market, a relatively small group of multinational corporations still dominate global food sales. This January 2026 update revises our original 2025 rankings using the latest available full-year 2024 results, 2025 trailing-twelve-month (TTM) data, and confirmed late-2025 corporate developments , including major mergers, recalls, and strategic restructurings.  Top 10 Food Companies by Revenue This ranking reflects the largest companies primarily by annual revenue, emphasizing food production, processing, distri...
Read more

NVIDIA vs AMD GPUs for AI: 2026 Comparison and Recommendations

By -
Image
In the rapidly evolving world of AI in 2026, choosing between NVIDIA and AMD GPUs boils down to ecosystem maturity, performance needs, and budget.  NVIDIA GPUs generally lead in AI performance, particularly for short- to medium-term rentals, due to their larger market presence and competitive pricing. However, AMD has been enhancing its offerings and can outperform NVIDIA in certain workloads, so the best choice depends on the specific use case. NVIDIA's dominance stems from its CUDA platform, which powers over 90% of AI frameworks, while AMD is gaining ground with ROCm's open-source approach and cost-effective hardware. AMD's Instinct MI300X and upcoming MI350 series offer competitive inference speeds, sometimes at 40% better efficiency than NVIDIA's Blackwell. This article compares their architectures, benchmarks for AI tasks like training and inference, and provides tailored recommendations with Amazon links for accessible models. Key Differences Between NVIDIA and ...
Read more

Top Silver ETFs to Watch in 2026: What Investors Need to Know (February 2026)

By -
Image
After its outsized gains in 2024–2025, silver experienced a sharp pullback entering February 2026 — a move that surprised many late-cycle buyers but was consistent with historical silver bull markets. This correction was driven by several overlapping factors: Profit-taking after extreme gains , particularly in leveraged and mining-linked products A stronger U.S. dollar and shifting rate expectations , which temporarily pressured precious metals Speculative positioning unwinds , as futures and options markets became crowded Equity market rotation , drawing capital back toward risk assets Importantly, the pullback did not coincide with a collapse in industrial demand or a sudden resolution of supply constraints. As a result, many analysts view the move as a  volatility reset rather th...
Read more

Best Gold and Silver ETFs for February 2026: Investor Guide

By -
Image
February 2026 finds precious metals at an inflection point. After strong multi‑year rallies followed by sharp corrections — particularly in silver — investors are reassessing  which gold and silver ETFs still make sense now , and which exposures carry unnecessary risk. This February 2026 update focuses on  liquidity, cost, structure, and behavior during volatility , rather than past headline returns. The goal is not to predict metal prices, but to help investors choose the  right vehicles  for current conditions. Here are the standout gold and silver ETFs heading into February 2026, combining physically backed funds and miner-focused options (which posted triple-digit returns in 2025). Selections highlight 1 Year performance, AUM for dependability, and anticipated growth in precious metals amid inflation and geopolitical tensions. Data sourced from TradingView , Yahoo Finance, Investopedia, Investors.com, totalrealreturns.com, and recent analyses. Top Gold ETFs ...
Read more

5 Best GPUs for AI Video Generation (2026)

By -
Image
As AI video generation tools like Stable Video Diffusion, Runway ML, and emerging models from OpenAI continue to evolve, having the right GPU is crucial for creators, developers, and enthusiasts. In 2026, AI video workflows demand high VRAM for handling large models, efficient tensor cores for acceleration, and robust support for frameworks like PyTorch and TensorFlow. NVIDIA remains the leader due to its CUDA ecosystem, but AMD offers competitive alternatives with improving ROCm support. This guide ranks the best GPUs based on performance, VRAM, power efficiency, and value for AI video tasks such as text-to-video, video upscaling, and style transfer. Key Factors to Consider When Choosing a GPU for AI Video Generation Before diving into recommendations, here's what matters most in 2026: VRAM Capacity : Aim for at least 24GB to run high-resolution models without batching or offloading. Architecture : NVIDIA's Blackwell (RTX 50-series) offers multi-frame generation (MFG) for fast...
Read more

Top Pharma ETFs for 2025: The Best Pharmaceutical Investments for Healthcare Growth

By -
Image
The pharmaceutical sector continues to thrive in 2025, driven by breakthroughs in biotechnology, rising demand for innovative treatments, and a global push toward personalized medicine. With an aging population and increasing healthcare spending projected to reach $10 trillion worldwide by 2026, investing in pharma offers a compelling opportunity for long-term growth. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) focused on pharmaceuticals provide diversified exposure to leading drug makers, reducing the risk of picking individual stocks like Eli Lilly (LLY) or Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). In this guide, we'll explore the top pharma ETFs for 2025, ranked by assets under management (AUM), year-to-date (YTD) performance, and overall appeal for investors seeking stability and upside in healthcare. Whether you're a beginner eyeing low-cost options or a seasoned trader chasing high-growth biotech plays, these best pharmaceutical ETFs can anchor your portfolio. All data is current as of mid-November ...
Read more

Top AI and Robotic ETFs to Watch in 2026

By -
Image
As 2025 draws to a close, the fusion of artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics continues to redefine industries from manufacturing to healthcare. What began as a speculative tech boom has matured into tangible productivity gains, with global robotics market projections soaring from $94 billion in 2024 to potentially $373 billion by 2034. AI's role in enabling smarter automation—think humanoid robots in warehouses or surgical systems in operating rooms—positions these technologies as the backbone of the next industrial revolution. For investors eyeing 2026, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) offer a diversified gateway to this high-growth sector without the pitfalls of stock-picking volatility. Yet, the landscape isn't without challenges. Recent market jitters around AI hype have led to underperformance in some funds, but experts like Fidelity's Adam Benjamin highlight AI's "far-reaching" disruption potential, with capex from tech giants like Amazon and Microsoft ...
Read more